A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
